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COMPUTING

From...
PC World

The Digital Future: The next PC

December 13, 1999
Web posted at: 9:57 a.m. EST (1457 GMT)

by the PC World staff

(IDG) -- For a quarter century, computing technology has advanced at a dizzying pace. Each year, PCs have gotten faster, smaller, cheaper. If the auto industry moved at a similar pace, observers say, we'd all be driving disposable, jet-engine Ferraris by now. But it's probably a good thing this isn't the case, since a system crash at 700 MHz is a lot safer than one at 700 mph. Nevertheless, judging by current evidence, computing technology will continue to accelerate at an unprecedented rate. Last month we looked back at the history of computing (see "The Digital Century," link below). This month, we look forward to the developing technologies that will shape our world tomorrow and the players behind them. Will PCs survive Internet madness? Or will they go the way of eight-track tapes and the Apple Newton? Will Microsoft be a formidable force in 2010? Or will the company's OS empire crumble like the former Soviet Union?

  ALSO
Monday:The Digital Future: The next PC

Tuesday: The Digital Future: The next ultraportables & the next Microsoft

Wednesday:The Digital Future: The next Internet & the next Web

Thursday:The Digital Future: The next microwave & the next computer virus

Friday:The Digital Future: The next video game

 

Standing at the cusp of the millennium, we've arrived at the era depicted in many sci-fi masterpieces. Much of what was predicted has come true, and even grown mundane. As we look ahead, the hype appears to be denser than the circuits on a Pentium III chip. What say you to molecular computing machines that you can't even see? How about a computer mouse that measures your moods (but regrettably doesn't change color to match them)? Not all the conceptualizations featured in these pages will come to pass. But fasten your seat belt anyway, because the next few years promise to be a wild ride.

The next PC: Exploring digital frontiers

"In the future," predicts the Web site for Matt Groening's animated show Futurama, "people will live twice as long, computers will die twice as fast."

Rumors of the PC's demise may be premature, but they aren't necessarily exaggerated. No one can say for certain whether the PC will survive the coming onslaught of supersmart alternative computing devices -- ranging from wireless phones to household appliances. Such products could make the PC less essential, especially if they're simpler to use and don't crash as often.

In the short run, you can expect PCs to become smaller and more powerful, with thinner and lighter screens. And advances in voice recognition could ultimately make museum relics of your mouse and keyboard. But while the aging PC may undergo some cosmetic nips and tucks, it probably won't disappear altogether -- at least not in the near future.

Moore power to you

Moore's Law, based on a 1965 prediction by Intel cofounder Gordon Moore, states that processing power will double every 18 months or so. That's been the case since Moore's declaration, and there's no sign that this torrid pace will let up.

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"We expect Moore's Law to continue, even ten years from now," says Intel spokesman Manny Vara. Intel's chip release road map, which sets the tempo for the industry, calls for 800-MHz Pentium III desktop processors in the first half of this year, and 1-GHz chips by year's end. AMD plans to produce a 1-GHz Athlon processor by October.

Current processor technology will eventually hit a brick wall, though. Researchers agree that existing lithographic techniques for creating silicon chips are limited -- you can fit only so many transistors onto a silicon wafer.

So let's get small. Real small.

Now you see it...

Nanotechnology and quantum computing are two areas of research attempting to supplant the silicon chip. Still largely theoretical, these concepts involve using molecular or even subatomic particles as logic components. Instead of relying on circuits to perform calculations, computers would use the position of individual atoms or spinning electrons to crunch numbers, creating extremely powerful "microscopic" computers that would leave today's machines in the subatomic dust.

But what good is a microscopic PC? Robert Morris, director of IBM's Almaden Research Center, says there are certainly practical applications for a miniscule computer -- but of course, not one that small. "Rather than making these things so tiny that you inhale [them] by mistake," Morris says, "we're putting effort into wearable computers." Microscopic computing would require very little power -- perfect for a tiny, wearable PC such as a computing wristwatch, one idea that the Research Center is pursuing. And, says Morris, quantum computing power would be virtually limitless. It would allow for "massively parallel" computations of the sort foreshadowed by Deep Blue, the supercomputer that beat world chess champion Gary Kasparov in 1997.

Will you need this much brainpower to run Microsoft Office 2005? Probably not; but potential applications for number-crunching on this scale could include heavy-duty tasks such as weather forecasting and genetic engineering.

Coffee talk

"In an ideal world the computer will become invisible. The ultimate will be when almost any object that we buy, no matter how inanimate, will contain an embedded processor that will enhance its function. A coffee cup, with embedded sensors and processing, could monitor how many cups of coffee you have drunk that day along with the amount of milk fat and sugar, and then upload this information into your personal health maintenance program. The program might also tell you if you are drinking too much caffeine."
--Roy Want: manager at the embedded systems division at Xerox PARC

FutureSpeak

Voice recognition is often trumpeted as the most natural interface for personal computers, and it continues to be one of the busiest areas of development in the industry. Louis Woo, president and general manager of speech technology powerhouse Lernout & Hauspie, says that hardware and software technologies have reached the point where speech input can be speaker independent -- that is, it requires no user training. Building on advances made in both hardware and software noise-cancellation technology, he says, omnidirectional computer microphones that can pick out voice commands from background clatter in a room are emerging. Woo expects voice interface systems to be part of everyday computer use within the next three to five years.

The touchy-feely PC

Computers are also quickly becoming adept at recognizing faces, tracking gazes, and even sensing moods. IBM's Blue Eyes research program is built around such biometric technologies. "One of the things we're interested in is attentive user interfaces," IBM research director Morris says. "These are interfaces that pay attention to you as you pay attention to them."

One developing technology, gaze tracking, involves a computer camera, mounted to your display, that follows your iris. Depending on where your eye focuses on the monitor, the computer "senses" what information you want and calls it up without requiring you to click a hyperlink.

Advanced face-recognition systems will have other applications as well. For example, an always-on video camera may be used to scan your face every time you sit down to type. If an unauthorized person tries to use your system, your keyboard will lock up. Or recognition systems may further customize your PC experience. "Your display could adjust the font size depending on where you are in the room," Morris says. "It could recognize the faces of various members of your family, and give customized information at a glance."

Another Blue Eyes project is a computer mouse that senses your moods. It will gauge a user's emotional state by measuring pulse, temperature, and skin responses through the fingertips. Potential applications, developers say, include video games and market research. The mouse could tell game makers when a player is excited or frightened, and let marketers know how questionnaire respondents "feel" about their answers.

The next PC: Looks matter

While the personal computer industry has made great strides in function, form has largely been forsaken. Cabinets, monitors, keyboards, and mice are still beige and bland. We may be buying brand-new Ferraris, but for the most part, they still look like '85 Ford Escorts.

Some new systems -- such as EMachines' EOne and high-end, all-in-one systems like NEC's Z1 -- exhibit cosmetic changes. But future concoctions may overhaul our perception of the PC by taking the machine out of the box. Intel, for instance, is touting the Ottoman PC, a high-concept home PC that packs a Pentium III system, a flip-up LCD, and a wireless keyboard into a funky footstool that's "inherently suitable next to any sofa or chair." Meanwhile, printer manufacturer Lexmark has partnered with the University of Kentucky College of Fine Arts to design a future office workspace. Among its stylish components: a see-through monitor, a folding wireless keyboard (which looks like a high-tech handbag) that you can tote around the office and use with any PC, a printer that sprays paper as well as ink from its cartridges, and a smart desk that senses your arrival and adjusts itself to your height.

Someday, these gizmos may become a reality. In the meantime, as long as computers continue to get smaller, faster, and more affordable, we shouldn't complain. By way of comparison, consider another highly popular market in which the goods have become steadily bigger, slower, and more expensive over the years: major-league baseball. Free-agent first basemen seldom, if ever, come with a warranty.

Display's the thing

The near future of display technology can be summarized in three letters: LCD. Flat-panel LCD monitors have several advantages over CRTs: They're lighter, smaller, and capable of higher resolution. Unfortunately, for the next few years at least, LCDs will be prohibitively expensive for many users. Bob O'Donnell, research manager for PC displays with market research firm International Data Corporation, anticipates that 15-inch LCDs won't hit the $500 price point (down from the current $1000) until 2003. And they will still cost more than CRTs.

Nevertheless, flat panels are the future, and at least one company is looking to take them to the next level. Russ Wilcox is cofounder and vice president of EInk, a company that aims to produce flexible, paper-thin displays within five years. EInk's Immedia technology consists of liquid ink embedded in paper-thin plastic sheets. Microcapsules contain the ink, along with tiny white particles that respond to electrical impulses. A wireless antenna chip in the "paper" transforms radio waves into text and images.

Currently, EInk is field-testing display signs in Illinois and Massachusetts J.C. Penney stores. The signs -- measuring 4 feet by 4 feet and made of foam core and plastic -- receive an electric impulse that causes the text and images to change. The company also plans to create an electronic book within five years, with flexible, plastic "pages" that could display downloaded text and erase and reprint themselves. "[The book] would have hundreds of pages you can thumb through, in which all of the text can change," Wilcox says. Attach the book to your PC and it will download whatever you want to read.

IBM's Morris expects displays to evolve in another way: Instead of smaller, 2D displays, he envisions bigger, 3D images. "One obvious extension would be the projection display," he says. "You could project right onto the walls and live in a sea of data [that surrounds you]." Morris predicts 3D displays for games, entertainment, and even medicine (perhaps offering doctors much more comprehensive views of the body through 3D CAT scans and X rays, for example). Initially, such displays would be projected into glass or plastic cubes, but eventually they could stand on their own.

The next PC: Will drives thrive?

One impediment to generating 3D displays is the tremendous amount of code required to store and project them. Fortunately, as quickly as processors are advancing, storage is moving even faster.

"Right now [hard drive capacity] is increasing at over 100 percent per year, and I think that'll keep up for the next handful of years," says IDC's research manager for disk drive storage, Danielle Levitas. By combining magnetic and new forms of optical storage technology, hard drives capable of holding 100 gigs per platter should ship by 2005, Levitas says.

But will we need all this storage if our lives become Internet-based? Morris says that if storage technology outpaces communication technology, it makes sense to keep data retrieval local. But if communication technology moves faster, remote servers will be the way of the future. Rather than storing data on computing devices, we'd grab what we need from online storage depots. Imagine keeping your music collection online and downloading Tony Bennett and Limp Bizkit whenever you want, using portable players and MP3 files. Already, virtual Web drives like IDrive.com and FreeDrive.com offer up to 25MB of free storage.

Morris also envisions storage in another dimension. "We're very interested in the idea of holographic storage," he says. "Instead of storing magnetic bits on a disk's surface, we're going to the third dimension. By using lasers and their interference patterns, we're able to store information in a crystal and read it at a rapid speed." Holographic storage could produce faster data transfers and more efficient searches by using minute changes in light angles to scan vast amounts of data at once.

This is no pipe dream. Holographic storage already exists in research labs, Morris says. Its capacities approach those of today's biggest hard drives, and data transfer rates reach 1GB per second. But the technology is so expensive that it will be several years before consumers can expect to see any practical holographic storage products on the market.

Space is the place

"One holographic storage disk will hold millions and millions of holograms. You'll be able to store a large university's entire archives on ten holographic disks. By the time it gets to the desktop, in the outer edge of ten years, transfer rates will be up to 100MB per second. Audio-video applications will drive the need for this type of storage. People are going to need to store hundreds and hundreds of gigabytes of video, and we'll be able to make the media very cheap."
--Kevin Curtis: program manager of holographic storage development at Bell Labs (a unit of Lucent Technologies)


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