CNN Insight

The Congo's New Kabila

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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DOMINIQUE SAKOMBI, DEM. REPUBLIC OF CONGO INFORMATION MINISTER (through translator): Mr. Laurent Kabila died Thursday at 10:00.

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JONATHAN MANN, INSIGHT (voice-over): A rebel's final reward. The Democratic Republic of Congo confirms the assassination of its president. Kabila is dead. Long live Kabila.

(on camera): Hello, and welcome.

The news came faster than the eventual official confirmation, but it now seems clear. An enormous, war-torn country at the center of Africa is in the hands of an untested 31-year-old soldier. His father, Laurent Kabila, is dead, reportedly assassinated by a bodyguard.

The younger Kabila, Joseph, is not well known in his own country, nor around the world. It's unclear how much support he enjoys or how long that support will last. On our program today - the Congo's new Kabila.

We're joined from Kinshasa now by journalist Nicholas Long. Can you tell us, first of all, about the announcement? What the Congolese people learned from it, what they already knew?

NICHOLAS LONG, JOURNALIST: I think they probably knew that President Kabila was dead. I think what they would have been listening for, more than anything, was the tone of the announcement and any declarations that the government was making about future government policy.

And I think they would have found the tone a little lukewarm. The description of this complex, extraordinary and exceptional personality - who could not forget him - I think was how the information minister put it. They did not call him "mzee" (ph) Laurent Desiree Kabila, which has been his official title during his years as president. Mzee is a Swahili word meaning "wise man," which Laurent Kabila adopted some years ago, I believe, when he was in Tanzania.

So I think already people are sensing that there may be some changes of policy on the way. There are encouraging noises in terms of attitude towards peace negotiations coming from some of the political speakers who are being shown on the television now. But it's very early days to make any predictions about the course which this government will take.

MANN: The course the government has taken is put it in the hands of Joseph Kabila. What can you tell us about him?

LONG: Well, as you say, he's a very young man, and he hasn't a lot of experience except perhaps in the military field. He attended Makerere University in Uganda, I understand, although I'm not sure if he graduated. He has not spent much time outside the region, unlike his father. He has not spent much of his life in the Congo.

He didn't really spend much time there until his father took control of the country in 1997. He has been army commander and, at one point, was commander of the - all the armed forces. And he appears to have collaborated quite well with the other generals, and he has not sought publicity. And he's not made a reputation for himself as a trouble-maker, unlike one or two of his brothers.

So I think he faces awesome challenges, but he may take after his father, and his father at least was his own man. One hopes perhaps that Joseph Kabila will not be so headstrong. That was the usual criticism made of Laurent Kabila.

If he takes the advice of the people around him and he's making conciliatory noises in the sense that he's assuring ambassadors now that he wants to cooperate with the United Nations, that would be a very positive step, which his father failed to take consistently. Let's hope he continues on that course.

MANN: Is there any way to tell whether he's a figurehead, acting on behalf of others, and whether he's a transitional figure at that, likely to be replaced once things are more settled?

LONG: Well, certainly, the initial announcement was that he was interim head of state until his father's recovery. Now his father has not recovered, and the official announcements are clearly referring to him as the head of state. So he's the head of state for the time being. But as to whether he's a figurehead, people said that his father was just a front man. But he turned out to be his own man for the period that he survived.

I think it's difficult for anybody in the Democratic Republic of Congo to say that any one group of people hold all the leaders of power. The situation is so fluctuating, and indeed, the machinery of the state is in such disrepair that almost anything can happen. One thinks that the people who control the army are the people who are going to call the shots, but the Congolese army has, in the past, been notoriously fragmented and undisciplined.

Although, it's true to say, that under Kabila, it has become more coherent and more disciplined. And Joseph Kabila, if he can build on that tradition, will be starting well.

MANN: Nicholas Long in Kinshasa, thanks very much.

We have to take a break now. But when we come back - Belgium is a profound part of Congo's past. The Belgians may have some thoughts about its future.

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MANN: Welcome back.

In the confusion that followed the attack on Laurent Kabila, news emerged from several sources. Among them, Belgium's foreign ministry. Belgium ruled Congo as a colonial power, and it set down deep roots there. Its foreign minister, Louis Michel, joins us now from Brussels.

Mr. Minister, thank you so much for being with us. Let me ask you, first of all, about your sense of what has happened, what is happening now in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

LOUIS MICHEL, BELGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: Well, now situation is quiet and calm. For the moment, this is important as our first concern is, of course, security of the population and also of the foreign community. Our first contacts with the local authorities indicate that they will do everything to ensure stability.

It is clear that the late president's son has assumed power. Continued peace seems ensured for the near time, the near future. Almost all government and the military chiefs are keeping their positions, and it is important to note that no troops movements are being reported - not in the government-held areas, not in the rebel-held zone.

It is sensed that nobody has taken advantage of this situation. The attitudes of the other countries involved in the conflict doesn't appear to have changed either. That's, of course, very important.

MANN: There was quite a number of diplomatic representatives meeting with Joseph Kabila earlier today. I believe we saw the Belgian ambassador among them, shaking hands with the new ruler. Should we take it that Belgium, your government, supports Joseph Kabila as the rightful ruler of the Democratic Republic of Congo?

MICHEL: It's (inaudible) impossible to take that position now, today. Of course, we must know precisely what he wants to do. Our ambassador was told by President Joseph Kabila that he is intended, in fact, to make peace. He wants to make peace, he told him.

He wants also to reconstruct economically Congo, and he wants to improve, to do his fairest best to improve democracy. These aims are, of course, honorable, but of course we have to judge this man, who is taking the - following the succession of his father in very difficult conditions. We have to judge him on his acts.

MANN: Kabila Senior - Laurent Kabila took power promising elections. He never delivered on those. Is it incumbent on his son to make good on that promise and in the near future, do you think?

MICHEL: I think the international community, the United Nations and also the European Union, we have both to take initiatives to help them, to bring them together to bring the parties together and to bring them to a roundtable to achieve and to improve, to implement the Lusaka agreement. I think that the most important thing now to make peace in Congo and to bring stability in Central Africa in all the regions - (inaudible) other countries also - the main aim now is to bring them together and to force, if it is necessary, the inter-Congolese dialogue. That's important.

MANN: Mr. Kabila's late father was viewed as an impediment to what you've just described, an impediment to the Lusaka process and to peace in his country. Do you think the arrival of his son bodes well for that process, or is it all going to be on hold while the Democratic Republic of Congo figures out its leadership?

MICHEL: I think that we have to help them in Congo - all the parties, the rebels, the opposition, the nonviolent positions, the civil society - all those who represent something in Congo, we have to help them to really go to peace, to speak together and to make of this event a window of opportunity to have a new fact, in fact, to justify a new (inaudible) of each party.

I can't believe in this if the international community takes its responsibility towards Africa, I think it's another problem.

MANN: The figures around Joseph Kabila are the same, for now, who surrounded his father. Should there be a change, do you think? Does the arrival of a new president and the incredible demands of that country - the need for peace, the need for elections, the need for development - suggest that really the people who have had their chance over the last four years should step back?

MICHEL: I think we must not work too fast immediately. We must wait some days to analyze precisely the situation and wait. But you can easily imagine the opportunity to change and people around the new President Kabila is, of course, the inter-Congolese dialogue. If that inter-Congolese dialogue should succeed, well, naturally you will have changes and you will have a new team at the head of the country.

MANN: The reason I ask that is, to be frank, the Congo has been a terribly corrupt country, a plundered country, a country whose governments have done a terrible job of trying to look after the needs of their people. What does the Congo need now? It has a new president. Does it need a new government? Does it need a new way of doing business?

MICHEL: I think that the Congo needs a new - a good and deep negotiation to have a good agreement. Congo have to build up a new mentality, a new program, in fact, for the country - (inaudible) on that particular level, also for the administration, for justice, Congo has to become a state, a real state in the good sense of the word, be a good government.

But I don't think Congo can do that alone. And Congo needs really the support of the international community. I'll never say enough that international community has to take a (inaudible) as to watch Africa and to watch Congo and to watch Central Africa.

MANN: Michel Louis, foreign minister of Belgium, thank you so much for talking with us.

We have to take another break. But when we come back, we'll talk more about peace and the effort towards it. What happens to a war when someone kills the commander? Stay with us.

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MANN: Welcome back.

If official accounts are to be believed, Laurent Kabila survived the attempt on his life long enough to be rushed from his country. Kabila met his death much the same way he spent most of his life - far from home, linked to violence.

Patty Tripathy (ph) has this look now at the life of Laurent Kabila.

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PATTY TRIPATHY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Laurent Desiree Kabila was a relative unknown when he emerged to topple Zaire's long- time ruler Mobutu Sese Seko. The young Marxist with a formal education in France was born in 1939 in the southeastern Shaba province.

He joined a Shaba secessionist movement that was crushed by Belgian paratroopers and later led a band of rebels who survived by mining gold. But it wasn't until he was hand-picked by rebels who were sweeping across Zaire in 1996 that the name Laurent Kabila become widely known.

Kabila promised democracy, freedom and wealth for a nation rich in resources, but whose people starved while its leaders enriched themselves. What set the stage for dramatic change was the Rwanda genocide of 1994. Rwanda's Tutsi-led government wanted to install a Congolese leader willing to help it secure eastern Congo. The area concealed Hutu militias responsible for the genocide in which at least 500,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed.

The Hutu militias staged cross-border raids, and Rwanda, along with Ugandan allies, took action. What began as a move against the Hutu raids blossomed into an all-out rebellion in Zaire. Kabila emerged as its leader.

Town after town hailed Kabila as a liberator, and recruits flocked to join his forces. With the support of allies in Uganda, Angola and Rwanda, Kabila's forces ousted Mobutu in May 1997. Kabila assumed power and renamed the nation the Democratic Republic of Congo. He promised reform.

But the familiar neglect and nepotism common under Mobutu continue under Kabila, only with new favorites. In August of 1998, just over a year after Rwanda helped propel him to power, Kabila ordered Rwandan troops out of Congo. In turn, Rwanda and Uganda backed a new rebellion that nearly captured the capital Kinshasa before the rebels were recalled.

The war quickly involved at least six African countries and several Congolese rebels factions. A 1999 cease-fire agreement has largely been ignored. No successor has been groomed for Kabila, leading many to believe there will be further unrest.

MARCUS MABRY, NEWSWEEK INTERNATIONAL: This has often been called Africa's first world war, so the prospect for chaos are, across the spectrum, we could be, in fact, see ethnic conflict. We could see the rebels who are largely ethnically Tutsi and supported by nations which the Congolese themselves view as largely Tutsi nations. We could see an ethnic conflict reminiscent of the Rwandan genocide.

We could see everything from that all the way over to division factional faction erupting in the streets of Kinshasa, the streets of Lubumbashi. We could see this country break up into, you know, 10 or 12 dozen pieces.

TRIPATHY: And Laurent Kabila's legacy, much like that of his predecessor, Mobutu, is a nation scarred by deep ethnic rivalries, political unrest and economic failure.

Patty Tripathy, CNN.

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MANN: It's more than just scarred. The country Joseph Kabila inherits is split in two. That complex war for control of the Democratic Republic of Congo has drawn in, as we've heard, several of Congo's neighbors backing domestic factions and fighting with troops of their own. The war leaves much of the country, the north and eastern portions, beyond Kinshasa and Joseph Kabila's control.

Joining us now to talk about the war and where Laurent Kabila's death will lead it is Adama Gaye, editor of West Africa magazine. Thank you so much for being with us.

The young Mr. Kabila, the young General Kabila inherits a war. How's it going?

ADAMA GAYE, WEST AFRICA MAGAZINE: It will be very difficult. But the death of the father could be a blessing in disguise. You remember two or three years ago, when Abacha died in Nigeria, many thought that that country would go into chaos.

But their country's military leader, General Abdulsalam Abubakar decided to attend the issues at stake for the country, restore democracy, free the political prisoners and open up the country to the rest of the world. I believe that there are possibilities for the young Kabila to understand that. He cannot control the country for a long time without opening up the country to democracy and bringing back all the faction around the table to discuss the future of this huge African country.

MANN: Forgive me if I'm wrong, but it's not just a question of democracy among the people of his own country, very powerful countries nearby want to see him gone. How does he cope with Rwanda and Uganda in particular fighting to oust him?

GAYE: Yes, it's not just the democracy alone, but foreign policy begins at home. You have first to settle the problems that you have at home before you start handling and getting the support from the international community that is needed in the case of the Congo, of this country.

As you know, this situation in this country is not only an homegrown conflict. As you look back into the history of Congo, one knows that the former colonial ruler (inaudible) left the country in the worst situation. Nothing was achieved. The country's wealth was destroyed, and later on, during the Cold War, we America taking advantage of the tragic position of the Democratic Republic of Congo, then Zaire.

Nothing was achieved in terms of economic development. And the inconsistencies of foreign policy of the United States were shown during that era. Now, we have to address the problem. I believe that the international community, as the foreign minister of Belgium rightly said, has the duty to act now.

And we know the way forward. It is the Lusaka accord, which calls notably for the withdrawal of these, the powerful nations. They should withdraw from the region because that's what the Organization of African Unity called for in its Article 3 of its charter which provides for the national sovereignty and integrity of all the member states of the Organization of African Unity.

Everybody knows that those countries - mainly Rwanda, Uganda - who have been there not only are there for secretaries, and as they have said, they are there also to take advantage of the huge mineral resources of Congo. And the international community, because of what has been done in the past, should now act, I believe.

MANN: Just a moment ago, we were looking at a map of the Congo, and we saw how much of it is outside of the government's control in the hands of forces backed by Rwanda and Uganda and other forces as well. What are the chances that this country, enormous as it is - the third- largest country in Africa - doesn't survive in its current state?

That, in fact, the Democratic Republic of Congo will not survive Laurent Kabila?

GAYE: I believe that I will stand against this pessimistic approach. It is important that the question be addressed to a national democratic conference. And since - ever since the independence of the Democratic Republic of Congo on June 1960, there has been a lot of forces fighting for the identity of the country.

And one recurrent question is whether the country should remain a unitary nation or whether it should be a federalist state with a lot of autonomy given to the provinces. I think that is the way that can be (inaudible), and that is why it is urgent that people sit down and discuss once again the Lusaka peace agreement, which is very important, insist (ph) at least twice or three times on the methods needed to maintain the country as one individual entity.

And that, the international community should guarantee that. This variable, without it, it's the whole of the continent that could be destroyed.

MANN: It was the governing Kinshasa that was blamed, among others, for the lack of progress on the Lusaka accord, the lack of movement towards the peace project that had been agreed on. Do you think there's reason for optimism that simply because Laurent Kabila has passed away that there will be more of a good faith effort?

GAYE: Of course, the Kabila government procrastinated a lot, postponed important issues. He came to power, Kabila, as we know, in May 1997 with a lot of good will from the international community, and also he was backed by countries like the United States who were eager to get rid of the person who was (inaudible) during the Cold War.

So unfortunately, Kabila didn't build on this advantage by calling on the opposition to sit down and negotiate the future of the country. Now that he's dead, I believe once again - as I said earlier - that Joseph Kabila may not be his father, and he understands that there are changing times. But he cannot postpone for too long the necessity to call a national conference to discuss the transition and build a new Congo.

And I think that - I don't want that the state should be pessimistic. I think that there is a framework that is there. That's the Lusaka peace accord. Let's put it in place and implement it urgently.

MANN: Adama Gaye, thanks so much for being with us.

GAYE: A pleasure.

MANN: And that is INSIGHT for this day. Thanks for joining us. I'm Jonathan Mann.

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