THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JONATHAN MANN, INSIGHT (voice-over): Another fragment of a fractious country. Having lost East Timor, Indonesia now finds itself fighting to hold on to Aceh, a richer place far more important to its future.
(on camera): Hello, and welcome.
There are more than 13,000 islands in Indonesia, and it's hard to know how a single state can span the distances and the differences between them all. The province of Aceh is on the western tip of Sumatra island at the western extreme of the Archipelago, closer to Singapore or Kuala Lumpur than to Indonesia's own capital.
And Aceh is fighting over whether it will be able to break away entirely. Rebels have been fighting for decades, little noticed by the rest of the world.
On our program today - Indonesia's war in Aceh. Here's CNN's Atika Shubert.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ATIKA SHUBERT, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Friday prayer in Aceh. This devoutly Islamic province of Indonesia is fondly known as the front porch of Mecca. And in the quiet of Aceh's great mosque, it is hard to believe that this is Indonesia's latest battlefield, a fight for the hearts and minds of the Acehnese people.
Strategically placed, guarding the Straits of Malacca, one of the world's busiest waterways and coveted for a wealth of natural resources. Aceh is a prize nobody wants to lose -- trapped in a separatist conflict that has stretched for more three decades, leaving thousands dead.
One on side, the Free Aceh Movement - guerrillas fighting for independence but accused by Indonesian authorities of everything from drug smuggling to extortion. On the other, the Indonesian government, using nearly a decade of military rule to quash Aceh's separatist ambitions.
Rights groups say the result is a history of widespread military abuses -- countless cases of kidnapping, rape and torture. In 1998, the government vowed to take a civilian approach, ending military rule. A peace dialogue was started last year amid promises of stronger civilian government. But the fighting continued, despite numerous cease-fire agreements.
More than 400 people have been killed this year alone, the vast majority civilians.
RIDHWAN KARIM, GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATOR (through translator): Why doesn't the violence stop? Because neither side will respect the agreement. We have to conclude that. Whether it's Free Aceh or the government, we have no real authority to stop the violence. That authority lies with field commanders on both sides.
SHUBERT: Ground zero in this battle - Exxon Mobile gas fields, providing much-needed dollar revenues for Indonesia's crippled economy. Since the dialogue opened, there have been daily gunfights targeting facilities and staff, forcing Exxon Mobile to temporarily shut down operations.
That has lit the fuse to Aceh's powder keg. To secure desperately needed revenue, the government may resort to a military-led anti- guerrilla campaign. Aceh used to be a land ruled by military law. But when civilian authorities failed to control the violence, Aceh quickly became a land with no law.
This is Indonesia's dilemma. To restore order, it may have to send in troops. Rights groups say more troops risk taking even more civilian lives in a bid to neutralize Free Aceh rebels.
GEN. AGUS WIDJOJO, CHIEF OF TERRITORIAL AFFAIRS: It would have to be a match of strategy as to how to distinguish those armed elements and separate them from the people because both sides will be competing to win the support of the people.
SHUBERT: Caught in the crossfire are the Acehnese people. Years of military rule have alienated them from the government, and though sympathies lie with Free Aceh's desire for self-rule, most do not support their campaign of violence.
KHAERUL, UNIVERSITY STUDENT (through translator): I think sometimes the Free Aceh are justified, but not the violence. Nobody supports the violence.
SHUBERT: Instead, millions have rallied to calls for a referendum on independence, spearheaded by student leader Muhammad Nazar. But the government has flatly rejected these calls, throwing him in jail.
MUHAMMAD NAZAR, STUDENT LEADER (through translator): This is a compromise solution, a referendum of self-determination to determine Aceh's future in a peaceful and democratic way.
SHUBERT: He says the government is afraid of the result. If a vote were taken tomorrow, he estimates, 90 percent of the Acehnese people would choose independence.
(on camera): The Aceh problem isn't likely to be resolved soon. But Muhammad Nazar and his supporters say they won't stop until they get a referendum on independence. They say letting the people decide is the only solution.
(voice-over): Aceh has become Indonesia's quagmire. Quick military action may mean a higher death toll, but peace talks are having no effect on the violence.
Acehnese pray for an end to the conflict. They say in the battle for the front porch of Mecca, the people have the most to lose.
Atika Shubert, CNN, Aceh.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MANN: We have to take a break. When we come back - a conversation about Aceh, its problems and potential. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MANN: Welcome back.
Updating a story that we're watching very closely here at CNN, less than an hour before the start of the summit meant to forge the world's largest trading bloc, the streets of Quebec City in Canada have been transformed into something resembling a war zone.
Several thousand protesters at the Summit of the Americas have torn down a perimeter fence that isolated the conference center and the hotels where 34 national leaders are staying. At least word, only four of them have made their way from the places where they're staying into the conference center itself, with something more than an hour to go before the opening of the summit is officially declared.
Police have been firing tear gas to head off the protesters. They have also made several arrests. The protesters themselves are a diverse group of people opposed to globalization. Among them are environmentalists, human rights groups and anarchists.
The weekend Summit of the Americas is trying to set up a free trade zone for the countries of the Western Hemisphere.
Now, Aceh. Until Indonesia was formed as an independent state, Aceh was a sultanate, with its own currency and trade. When it joined Indonesia and more than once since, it was promised a special status. It has grown tired of waiting.
There is now legislation granting Aceh more power before the Indonesian parliament, but there is no word on when it might pass. Joining us now to talk about all of this is James Clad, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University in Washington.
Thanks so much for being with us. East Timor has already broken away from Indonesia. Can the country afford now to lose Aceh as well?
JAMES CLAD, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: East Timor was a very special exception that even most of the people inside the Indonesian political elite felt was a bit of a stretch. I think it's a mistake to think that because East Timor had its referendum and has decided to move on and become a separate state - and that's going to be quite a challenge for it as well - that there is some kind of automatic nature to Aceh and other parts of Indonesia leaving.
I think what East Timor did, though, was to create a precedent which was a very unhappy one for the Indonesians that people in Aceh and elsewhere who feel aggrieved, feel that they should have a chance at a referendum, the feeling in Jakarta, of course, is if you have a referendum, there is not end to the process, and the Acehnese could decide to leave. And then they'd be faced with a situation where they would really be on the back foot.
MANN: There was a widespread consensus that the people of East Timor were never really Indonesians per se.
CLAD: That's right.
MANN: What about the Acehnese? They say that they have their own distinct history as well.
CLAD: Well, I think we've got to look at this a little more carefully. For example, Aceh was a sultanate, but its great moments were back in the 17th century. They were great moments, indeed. The Acehnese fielded huge fleets that fought the Portuguese, for example, in great big epic sea battles.
But Aceh was also subjugated by the Dutch back in the early part of the last century. In 1908 or '09, there were a series of wars. And the Acehnese did, because of their dislike for the Dutch colonialists, decide to be in the forefront of the Indonesian national revolution. And in fact, it was in recognition of their embrace of the Indonesian cause - this nationalist cause across 3,000 miles of islands - that they received a special administrative status back when Indonesia was formed more than 50 years ago.
MANN: Now they find themselves in the country. They find themselves in a very rich corner of the country, and they suspect, they say, that they're not getting their fair share of the natural wealth that is owed to them. How much does natural gas, how much do resources play into what's happening now?
CLAD: Resources play a great deal. I mean, one of the big contrasts between East Timor, and maybe a reason why Jakarta didn't pull out all the stops - although it was very unpleasant two years ago when they were resisting the pro-independence vote - is that East Timor has perhaps coffee and some kind of future petroleum resources that are going to take a long time to realize.
Aceh, by comparison, has hydroelectric resources, a range of tropical produce and oil and gas reserves, especially gas out of the Arun field, which Exxon Mobile has managed on behalf of the Indonesian government. They're huge, and that liquid natural gas export going up to Northeast Asia -- the Japanese buy it, the Koreans, the Taiwanese - is a huge part of the overall oil and gas revenue for Indonesia.
And let's not forget that these days oil and gas prices are high, so the Indonesian government, if it ever said good-bye to these revenues, would be saying good-bye to a big chunk of their overseas foreign exchange earnings.
MANN: Why has it come this far, given how important Aceh is? Why hasn't this problem been solved?
CLAD: Well, it hasn't been solved because, firstly, it's important to understand that Aceh is more than one sort of bitterly united opposition front to Indonesian control exercised out of the capital, Jakarta. There are many different factions. The Gerakin Aceh Merdeka, the GAM, is actually at the moment probably more than eight factions within it. There are meddling hands across the Straits of Malacca from Malaysia, from southern Thailand.
On the other hand, a lack of central control by the current presidency of Abdurrahman Wahid in Jakarta means that the military elements of the state-owned oil monopoly, Pertamina, they all can pretty much do what they want in Aceh, and a lot of that involves playing a variety of very intense political games.
So the overall picture is highly fragmented and very, very confused.
MANN: So how does this get solved?
CLAD: It gets solved by a process that President Wahid, if he had a bit more power to apply it, is probably best place to use, and that approach would be one in which you very patiently, without military operations, talk to separate groups of Acehnese, try to bring them back into the Indonesian family. Not all Acehnese are opposed to Jakarta's control. They just want a better share of the resources I mentioned a moment ago.
And it's a very patient and slow process. But right now, with so many hands in the - on the sort of policy levers - the military seeking to apply a harsh response and in the process protecting little fiefdoms of control in which the military engage in sometimes illicit activities. All of this means that you've got to get some sorted out in Jakarta first, and then we can have some policy.
At the moment, we have a situation on the ground that's so crazy, so confused that Exxon Mobile finally had to, for reasons of safety and a lack of a sense of any control in the vicinity, close down its operations. And that's a big hit to Indonesia's revenue earnings, and it's a big hit to Indonesia's reputation among foreign investors.
MANN: James Clad of Georgetown University, thank you so much for talking with us.
CLAD: Sure.
MANN: At the center of this, a delicate if determined leader. President Abdurrahman Wahid may be frail, but he carries considerable political weight. He's been censured by Indonesia's parliament for alleged graft and faces another motion later this month that could lead to impeachment.
Mr. Wahid denies the allegations and warns of what he calls a nationwide rebellion if that kind of action is taken. He says hundreds of thousands of his supporters would converge on Jakarta to protest. In an effort to avert a standoff, the president is offering to discuss three key issues with his adversaries.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ABDURRAHMAN WAHID, INDONESIAN PRESIDENT: First is that to maintain the rule of law. Second thing, to reach security, stability in this country. And the third is how to make our economy getting better.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MANN: Protests in Jakarta, unrest in the provinces, discontent in the parliament - all on the shoulders of a 60-year-old cleric who suffered two strokes and is almost blind. Earlier, we spoke to Indonesia analyst Jonathan Paris about the unrest in the Abdurrahman Wahid's country.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JONATHAN PARIS, INDONESIA ANALYST: I think it's bad more in a mental sense than in a physical sense. In fact, exports are up. The low rupiah and the high price of energy has helped Indonesia's economy. So on a basic economic level, things aren't all bad, especially outside the cities.
But in a political sense, they're having a difficult adjustment going from an authoritarian regime to a democracy. They don't have the institutions yet in place for a stable system yet.
MANN: And they have chosen a man to lead them through this with enormous optimism that has apparently dissipated. President Wahid faces censure, perhaps impeachment. How stable is the Wahid government? Where do things stand with him?
PARIS: Well, I know Abdurrahman Wahid. I've known him for six years. He's a very tolerant man. He has a very benign and inclusive vision for Indonesia. I think he's a good man. He's a religious leader.
And he's been thrust into an administrative role that is somewhat alien to his strengths. He's learning on the job. People are losing patience with him. But don't count him out. There is a good chance - I'd say 50-50 or better - that he will survive the censure motion and stay in power until the end of his term.
MANN: For those of us who don't follow it as closely as you do, is there a quick way to summarize how Mr. Wahid got into trouble and how much trouble he's in?
PARIS: There is no quick way, Jonathan, but I'll give it a try. The ostensible actions of censure are based on two corruption charges. These corruption charges amount to an amount of money that's peanuts compared to the corruption that went on before him under Suharto and even under Habibie's regime.
But the opponents in parliament have taken upon themselves to show the world and Indonesia that the president now reports to parliament. And this is their stick, this impeachment motion, to show that the president is beholden to parliament, which is a brand-new concept for Indonesia after over 50 years of authoritarian rule.
MANN: President Wahid is himself warning the country that there will be what he calls a nationwide rebellion if, in fact, the censure and impeachment efforts continue. His supporters are reportedly arming themselves and forming paramilitary squads in areas outside Jakarta. Is there any way that Indonesia can get past this peacefully?
PARIS: I would hope so. I think both his opponents and Wahid, you know, have to learn to work within the system, within this constitutional system where you can disagree without shooting at each other. But let there be no mistake about it. Abdurrahman Wahid is a deeply popular man among his religious organization, the NU, which has some 35 million members. And they're very strong in Java, in Eastern Java.
And they could easily come to Jakarta and demonstrate in his favor. So I wouldn't say there won't be violence, but I would hope there is a way to work through this friction without violence.
MANN: A few years back, the International Monetary Fund rescued Indonesia, when its economy crashed, with enormous amounts of cash. There is still another loan that is supposed to come from the IMF, but it's being held back. Why is that?
PARIS: There is a lack of credibility in the numbers that the government is reporting in terms of its budget, in terms of its public expenditures that have caused the IMF to hold off on the latest drawdown, which Indonesia really needs. Because if they hold off on this drawdown, then it delays further drawdowns, and it starts to add up into some sizable dollars.
So it's very important for the Indonesian government to work out an arrangement of transparency with the IMF so they can get this money. As far as the United States is concerned, the new Bush administration team is very much pro-Indonesia. It's very understanding of Wahid and of the importance of a stable Indonesia, particularly now that U.S. and China relations are at their nadir.
So I think that you're going to see from the United States at least understanding and support, wherever possible, for the Republic of Indonesia and for the current government.
MANN: Other countries are watching Indonesia, and I'm curious about whether their attitudes have changed. When East Timor made its way to the front pages of the world, the capitals of other countries, the governments of other countries essentially were handmaidens, helping East Timor to independence.
Indonesia is different now, and with the experience of East Timor behind them, are other countries eager to see Indonesia lose Aceh? Or are they now thinking more about just keeping Indonesia such as it is in one piece, no matter what?
PARIS: Absolutely. Jonathan, East Timor is a separate, unique case. Indonesia occupied, annexed East Timor in 1975, whereas Aceh - which is on the other side of Indonesia, almost in the Indian Ocean - was the first province to join Indonesia. It's historic Indonesia. Without Aceh, you really don't have a coherent and cohesive Indonesia.
And I think the rest of the world will support the territorial integrity of Indonesia. East Timor, separate case - separate religion, separate culture. Portugal held onto it, and then they left, and it was annexed far after the rest of Indonesia became a country.
So I think you're right. I think East Timor was a one-of case, and the world will be far less sympathetic to the Islamist secessionists in Aceh and far more supportive of Wahid.
MANN: Jonathan Paris.
That's INSIGHT for this day. I'm Jonathan Mann. The news continues.
END
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