index
“population dearth”
shrinking workforce pool and aging western populations
a sustainable world population
a reasonable standard of living
sources end
notes
“Across the globe, people are having fewer and fewer children. Fertility
rates have dropped by half since 1972, from six children per woman to 2.9.
And demographers say they're still falling, faster than ever. The world's
population will continue to grow from today's 6.4 billion to around 9 billion
in 2050. But after that, it will go sharply into decline. Indeed, a phenomenon
that we're destined to learn much more about depopulation has already begun
in a number of countries.”
However, births per woman vary greatly, depending on where the woman lives
(Note that two children per woman is necessary to replace an existing population)
:
country |
average no. of children per woman |
Niger |
8.0 |
Nigeria |
5.7 |
Kenya |
5.0 |
Guatemala |
4.1 |
India |
3.0 |
U.S.A. |
2.0 |
France |
1.9 |
Poland |
1.2 |
“[...] it takes a T.F.R. [total fertility rate] of 2.1 or 2.2 to
replace each generation — this number is called the replacement
rate — because some children will die before they grow up
to have their own two children. In countries with low life expectancies,
the replacement rate is even higher (2.3–3).” [Kimball]
It is all very well to go on about world population declining , but meanwhile
poverty continues, while resources are limited and the world is
probably over-populated. Thus worrying about such a decline in world population
is not pointed.
“If you heard the recent reports that the world's population growth
has slowed, don't breathe a sigh of relief just yet. The number of people
on the planet is still rising rapidly - and in the places that can least
support the growth.”
—
“The Population
Reference Bureau forecasts that much of humanity's future growth will
occur in its poorest areas. Today, 5.2 billion people, 80 percent of the
global population, live in less-developed countries.[1]
By 2050, those countries will be home to 8 billion people, with little prospect
for improvement in basic living conditions for most of them.”
—
“At the other end of the spectrum, industrialized nations are on the
brink of controlling population growth too well. The coming pressure from
American baby boomers on Social Security and Medicare is nothing compared
to the problems Japan and some European countries are having with too few
young workers to contribute to the needs of an aging population.”
[from
KRT Wire]
shrinking
workforce pool and aging western populations
To cope with a smaller work-force pool resulting a decreasing population,
concerned regions can use incentives for child production, similar to those
of Singapore. Better to reward more capable parents than to give bonuses to
young uneducated girls, paid for with money taken from from the more able
who are then unable to afford to raise children of their own.
There are also concerns that an aging population will not be able to maintain
a reasonable standard of living as the proportion of young workers falls.
This is a nonsense because the healthy life-span is steadily extending with
improved health education and health care, while productivity is also improving.
People are capable and, for the most part, are willing to work well beyond
arbitrary retirement age. Further, increased productivity, together with increasing
automation, mean that more work can be done with less people.
related document
Power, ownership and freedom
a sustainable world population
There are concerns that the world’s population is growing too large
for the planet to sustain. Discussion of world energy resources can be found
in the suite of energy briefing
documents.
a reasonable standard of
living
It is reckoned that individual
‘happiness’ increases until an annual income of approximately
US$13,000 is reached [as at 2003], whence basic needs are met.I am defining
“an annual income of approximately US$13,000”
as a reasonable standard of living.
At such an income level, ‘happiness’ then
remains stable, even though the income level becomes higher. (For a
simple outline, see this PDF
document.)
According to statistics from Nationmaster.com, there
are 36
countries which reach an average PPP
level of at least $13,000 per individual [2003].
They are (in order from highest PPP down) :
Luxembourg, United States of America, Norway, Iceland, Ireland, Switzerland,
Denmark, Belgium, Japan, Canada, Austria, Netherlands, Germany, Australia,
Finland, Sweden, France, Italy, United Kingdom, Israel, Cyprus, Singapore,
United Arab Emirates, New Zealand, Spain, Slovenia, The Bahamas, Portugal,
South Korea, Malta, Greece, Bahrain, Barbados, Kuwait, Czech Republic,
Equatorial Guinea.
Their total
population was about 1, 484,972,000 in July 2003. This is 24% of
the world’s population.
The population of the world was 6,300,000,000 in December
2003; in mid-2004 it was 6,396,000,000.
Obviously there are both very
rich and rather poor people in most countries, and the PPP level
given above can only provide an approximate idea of the proportion of
people in the world living at this “reasonable” standard
of living. |
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