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Editorial - Mac's Market Share and the Cascade Failure of Windows
by , 2:20 PM EDT, July 3rd, 2008
Apple enthusiasts were delighted this week to hear that the market share of Mac OS X had leaped from about 6 percent to 8 percent in the last year. Vista fans have countered that Vista's market share has climbed from 4.5 percent to 16.1 percent in the same period obliterating Mac OS X. Is there some middle ground that represents anything really important?
Fact #1. Windows overall market share is declining when one adds Vista to XP. That's important to note. A good adoption rate for a long awaited new product like Vista, as a replacement for XP, means nothing if the combined market share is declining.
Fact #2. Apple is doing well and making boatloads of money. The sales pace of Macs is two to three times that of PCs. But because so many PCs are sold each year, a two percent gain by Apple in 12 months is nothing to brag about. That's because it'll take another 20 years for Apple's market share to equal Windows at that pace.
One way to look at the trend is to look at the basis of Windows compared to Mac OS X. Microsoft never bit the bullet and revamped the architecture of Windows as Apple did in going from Mac OS 9 to Mac OS X. The conclusion I draw from this is that Windows will be victimized by cascade failure. Market share will come to a tipping point where the linearity effects go away and exponential effects take control.
For example, when glass breaks under some kinds of steady pressures, it cracks, holds for a horrifying, linear moment, then breaks dramatically. The same goes for ground that gives way. We even see this in the environment. Global environmental effects that some had thought would happen linearly over the next 50 years are happening right now. One example is the sea lanes opening in the Arctic.
Cascade failure happens when a system is exposed to slow but steady forces. That slow but steady force is the technology Apple is applying in Snow Leopard against the relaxed attitude Microsoft has about the future of Windows combined with its increasingly untenable architecture.
I predict that the curves will start to change over the next decade under Mr. Ballmer's leadership. Mac OS X market share will reach an inflection point and depart the linear curve. The sudden erosion in Windows Market share will grow faster than Microsoft's technical and management abilities to stop it.
Looking at the technical pressures Apple is applying in the market place has to make one think that the cascade failure of Windows is what Apple is trying to achieve. And if I were a Windows apologist right now, I wouldn't be looking at Vista market share as a glowing indicator of Microsoft's strengths.
Observer Comments
Thu Jul 03, 2008 2:54 pm Subject: Don't neglect the number of Windows PCs in business.
Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:59 pm Subject: re: Windows in business
The numbskull IT managers and CTOs of today were the college students of yesterday. Today's students, increasingly, are using Macs. So while there is currently a bias against Macs in business, within the next generation, this bias will be greatly diminished, if not eliminated.
Mac users will get promoted to IT management and CTO, but more immediately, many college grads and job switchers will prefer employers that allow them to use Macs. Those employers with a no-Macs policy with find themselves at a recruiting disadvantage, at least in good economic times.
It'll take years, but it'll get progressively better.
Comparing XP to Vista transitions is hardly comparable to Windows to Mac. An XP user who doesn't want change has no choice but to get Vista on his new computer.
I'm sure that far more then 16% of Mac users are using Leopard, as opposed to Tiger. And how many Mac users are upset that they can't get Tiger on their new macs?
Thu Jul 03, 2008 6:06 pm Subject: Microsoft's Windows Dilemma
Mr. Ballmer and Microsoft face a dilemma with Windows:(1) they can make incremental but inadequate improvements to Windows so as to maitain its backward compatibility with all of its existing applications, or (2) they can decide to undertake a complete overhaul of Windows to correct all of its deficiencies and update it to a modern architecture but, in so doing, sacrifice backward compatibility and require that legacy applications run in a compatibility layer. The first option means that Windows is probably headed toward the cascading failure that Mr. Martellaro describes, supra.
Adopting the second option creates a strategic opening for OS X and Window's other competing OSs, because, to use the capabilities of a modernized Windows, every existing application will have to be rewritten and, more importantly, repurchased. Thus, every CTO and CIO will be free to choose the OS, applications, and licensing terms that are in his company's best interests, since he has no legacy applications and must buy everything anew anyway. Developers will also be free to choose the OS that they want to develop for. That kind of freedom means that Windows would have to compete against OS X and Linux and who know what else on the merits, instead of relying on its monopoly and its installed base of legacy applications, and will have rely on its good will with decision makers and developers. And once the vassals are free, it is hard to imagine that they will have much good will toward their former Lord Microsoft, who constantly laid its heavy boot upon their necks. The second option may lead to a structurally sound version of Windows, but it also means a fair fight, where Windows shall almost certainly lose it monopoly and must henceforth compete on the merits to maintain and acquire its customers.
Cascading failure or, for the first time in more than twenty five years, competing on the merits, that is quite a dilemma. Whatever shall Mr. Ballmer do? Mr. Ballmer, of course, has a third option, which Microsoft doesn't have. He can follow Mr. Gates into retirement, use his vast wealth to set up a charitable foundation, and embark on a career in philanthropy.
Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:08 pm Subject:
QuoteAnonymous wrote:
Midori, anyone?
http://gizmodo.com/5021126/microsoft-midori-is-a-secret-post+windows-operating-system
Rumor and conjecture, anyone?
.. as a conceptional it sounds cool. Who knows what 5 years will bring to the OS market. We all agree that leopard won't be the OS of choice in 5 years. I hope not anyway.
I think competition is a good thing. I would like Apple's OS to be a smaller market. I think Apple moves faster than MS and is more willing to take risks. Of course those risks come with mistakes and bad press. OS 10.0 anyone? Ugh...
That said, both of my folks have moved from the Windows platform to mac laptops and are amazed. Well, mostly by 10.5.3's ability to screenshare, via iChat, with them over the internet (from Japan to Cape Cod) with no router-based firewall changes or IP addresses needed. Works great.
I think as my dad watched that whole process - he saw the platform difference immediately and was enamored. He is a crusty windows user from the 3.11 days.
QuoteNemo wrote:
Mr. Ballmer and Microsoft face a dilemma with Windows:(1) they can make incremental but inadequate improvements to Windows so as to maitain its backward compatibility with all of its existing applications, or (2) they can decide to undertake a complete overhaul of Windows to correct all of its deficiencies and update it to a modern architecture but, in so doing, sacrifice backward compatibility and require that legacy applications run in a compatibility layer.
I anticipated that MS would have pursued the 2nd option years ago. At that point in time, a decision would have had to be made between Mac and Window. And the decision would have been tough. Now though, Mac is running on all cylinders and gaining share. MS let Windows drift in order to maintain profits but it sacrificed its future.
The term 'cascade failure' is an interesting choice. It happens to be the term I've used for some years to describe a particular class of Windows problems. The customer starts by complaining that X doesn't work, X being an application, or printing, or sending e-mail or something. As I look at the system problems start cropping up in other areas; networking fails, all apps give a fatal error when you try to start them, strange screen redraw errors show up. All of this can snowball over a period of 15 to 30 minutes. The only solution is to Nuke&Pave i.e. format and rebuild the whole system.
IMO that's what M$ needs to do. Nuke&Pave Windows. Start over with a *nix core and build a new environment on top of it with a compatibility layer for legacy 95-XP apps.
Sound familiar?
Quotegeoduck wrote:
IMO that's what M$ needs to do. Nuke&Pave Windows. Start over with a *nix core and build a new environment on top of it with a compatibility layer for legacy 95-XP apps.
I completely agree that that is what needs to happen. I'm not sure MS has the will, nor the time, to implement something along these lines. The Mac marketshare is continuing to rise, albeit slowly. But if Mac OS reaches 10% the increases could come much faster and cause greater angst for MS.
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