Vladimir Putin's mastery checkmates the West

The cartoon images have shown Russia as an angry bear, stretching out a claw to maul Georgia. Russia is certainly angry, and, like a beast provoked, has bared its teeth. But it is the wrong stereotype. What the world has seen last week is a brilliant and brutal display of Russia's national game, chess. And Moscow has just declared checkmate.

Chess is a slow game. One has to be ready to ignore provocations, lose a few pawns and turn the hubris of others into their own entrapment. For years there has been rising resentment within Russia. Some of this is inevitable: the loss of empire, a burning sense of grievance and the fear that in the 1990s, amid domestic chaos and economic collapse, Russia's views no longer mattered.

A generalised resentment, similar to the sour undercurrents of Weimar Germany, began to focus on specific issues: the nonchalance of the Clinton Administration about Russian sensitivities, especially over the Balkans and in opening Nato's door to former Warsaw Pact members; the neo-conservative agenda of the early Bush years that saw no role for Russia in its global agenda; and Washington's ingratitude after 9/11 for vital Kremlin support over terrorism, Afghanistan and intelligence on extremism.

More infuriating was Western encouragement of “freedom” in the former Soviet satellite states that gave carte blanche to forces long hostile to Russia. In the Baltic states, Soviet occupation could be portrayed as worse than the Nazis. EU commissioners from new member states could target Russian policies. Populists in Eastern Europe could ride to power on anti-Russian rhetoric emboldened by Western applause for their fluency in English.

Nowhere was such taunting more wounding than in Ukraine and Georgia, two countries long part of the Russian Empire, whose history, religion and culture were so intertwined with Russia's. Moscow tried, disastrously, to check Western, and particularly American, influence in Ukraine. The clumsy meddling led to the Orange Revolution.

Georgia was a different matter. Relations were always mercurial, but Eduard Shevardnadze, the wily former Soviet Foreign Minister, knew how to keep atavistic animosities in check. Not so his brash successor, Mikheil Saakashvili. From then on, hubris was Tbilisi's undoing.

It was not simply the dismissive rhetoric, the open door to US advisers or the economic illiteracy in forgetting dependence on Russian energy and remittance from across the border; it was the determined attempt to make Georgia a US regional ally and outpost of US influence.

Big powers do not like other big powers poaching. This may not be moral or fair but it is reality, and one that underpins the Security Council veto. The Monroe Doctrine -“hands off the Americas”- has been policy in Washington for 200 years. The US is ready to risk war to keep out not only other powers but hostile ideologies - in Cuba and Nicaragua.

Vladimir Putin lost several pawns on the chessboard - Kosovo, Iraq, Nato membership for the Baltic states, US renunciation of the ABM treaty, US missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic. But he waited.

The trap was set in Georgia. When President Saakashvili blundered into South Ossetia, sending in an army to shell, kill and maim on a vicious scale (against US advice and his promised word), Russia was waiting.

It was not only Mr Saakashvili who thought that he had the distraction of the Olympics to cover him; the Kremlin also knew that Mr Bush was watching basketball, and, in the longer term, that the US army was fully engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan. From the day that the Russian tank brigade raced through the tunnel into South Ossetia, Russia has not made one wrong move. Mr Bush's remarks yesterday notwithstanding, In five days it turned an overreaching blunder by a Western-backed opponent into a devastating exposure of Western impotence, dithering and double standards on respecting national sovereignty (viz Iraq).

The attack was short, sharp and deadly - enough to send the Georgians fleeing in humiliating panic, their rout captured by global television. The destruction was enough to hurt, but not so much that the world would be roused in fury. The timing of the ceasefire was precise: just hours before President Sarkozy could voice Western anger. Moscow made clear that it retained the initiative. And despite sporadic breaches - on both sides - Russia has blunted Georgian charges that this is a war of annihilation.

Moscow can also counter Georgian PR, the last weapon left to Tbilisi. Human rights? Look at what Georgia has done in South Ossetia (and also in Abkhazia). National sovereignty? Look at the detachment of Kosovo from Serbia. False pretexts? Look at Ronald Reagan's invasion of Grenada to “rescue” US medical students. Western outrage? Look at the confused cacophony.

There are lessons everywhere. To the former Soviet republics - remember your geography. To Nato - do you still want to incorporate Caucasian vendettas into your alliance? To Tbilisi - do you want to keep a President who brought this on you? To Washington - does Russia's voice still count for nothing? Like it or not, it counts for a lot.

(c) Michael Binyon, The Times

Putin is a high functioning psychopath --a "near huamn" without the neurons required for a conscience.

Had western leaders consulted psychiatrists they would have figured him out a long time ago.

Unfortunately, Bush and Rice, Merkel and Sarkozy are projecting their values on to Putin --but as a "near human" he is more like a reptile when it comes to conscience--he doesn't have it in his genes or neocortex.

Putin like Hitler and Stalin --who were also high functioning psychopaths-- will keep pushing until he overreaches bringing catastrophe to Russia.

It's only a matter of time.

Putin is a high functioning psychopath --a "near human" without the brain neurons required for a conscience.

Had western leaders consulted psychiatrists, they would have figured Putin out a long time ago.

Unfortunately, Bush and Rice, Merkel and Sarkozy are projecting their values on to Putin --but as a "near human" he is more like a reptile when it comes to conscience--he doesn't have it in his genes or neocortex.

Putin like Hitler and Stalin --who were also high functioning psychopaths-- will keep pushing until he overreaches bringing catastrophe to Russia.

It's only a matter of time.

As corny as it sounds, the war may have been initiated by Putin to divert attention of the Russian public from lackluster performance of team Russia in the Olympics.

Bobo wrote:

Putin is a high functioning psychopath --a "near human" without the brain neurons required for a conscience.

And I thought Canadians were pacifists. Just to let you know, any leader of the world has a mandate to do whatever it takes to protect their citizens. That being said, Georgia has attacked Russian citizens in South Ossetia. US has been doing it for many many years: Grenada, Vietnam, Panama, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia - just to name a few. Why US is doing it? To protect its interests and therefor its citizens. Russia just did the same and all "civilized", but apparently not educated western politicians and the likes of you stared screaming about Russian response on the attack on its citizens. Yes, Russia had leaders such as Stalin in the past. Germany had Hitler and Chile has Pinochet. You can't judge the country by its past - but that is exactly what you are doing. Open your eyes and think for a minute about what is right and what is wrong. And how Canadian membership in NATO affected deaths of innocent civilians all over the world just because your bigh brother down south wanted to change their government.

Maksim wrote:

As corny as it sounds, the war may have been initiated by Putin to divert attention of the Russian public from lackluster performance of team Russia in the Olympics.

If that were true, it would have been timed for midway through the games. The metal count is now showing the weak showing of a number of counties. At opening, no need to divert attention.

However, the Russians I know are not letting the war distract from the games.

The USA metal count would not be that great if the one man gold winning swimmer were not on the team. The amazing numbers is the China count.

Bobo wrote:

Putin is a high functioning psychopath --a "near huamn" without the neurons required for a conscience.
Had western leaders consulted psychiatrists they would have figured him out a long time ago.
Unfortunately, Bush and Rice, Merkel and Sarkozy are projecting their values on to Putin --but as a "near human" he is more like a reptile when it comes to conscience--he doesn't have it in his genes or neocortex.
Putin like Hitler and Stalin --who were also high functioning psychopaths-- will keep pushing until he overreaches bringing catastrophe to Russia.
It's only a matter of time.

BOBO you are an idiot!

The idea of Russia as a victim is a little hard to swallow.

Nevertheless, Putin played this very well. The U.S. doesn't want a war with Russia, and the war-weary American people wouldn't support it even if Tbilisi was razed to the ground.

There is the possibility, though, that Putin could checkmate himself. Russia can probably get away with "independent" Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- a significant victory. Occupation of Georgia, or removing its government, would likely have very negative consequences, however.

Putin took a couple of rooks -- nice pieces, to be sure, but there are still more on the table. This chess game isn't over yet, and the next U.S. President, whether McCain or Obama, is going to be a much better player than Bush.

Zaporozhets wrote:

The idea of Russia as a victim is a little hard to swallow.
Nevertheless, Putin played this very well. The U.S. doesn't want a war with Russia, and the war-weary American people wouldn't support it even if Tbilisi was razed to the ground.
There is the possibility, though, that Putin could checkmate himself. Russia can probably get away with "independent" Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- a significant victory. Occupation of Georgia, or removing its government, would likely have very negative consequences, however.
Putin took a couple of rooks -- nice pieces, to be sure, but there are still more on the table. This chess game isn't over yet, and the next U.S. President, whether McCain or Obama, is going to be a much better player than Bush.

I suspect the likely consequences for Russia is this makes a quick admission of Ukraine into NATO more likely. That I think is Putin's and Medvedyev's "mistake". It will encourage NATO expansion eastward.
About Georgia the west will do nothing and the EU needs Russian oil and gas.

The evil Bush ordered Saakashvili to attack Russia and slaughter 10,000 people by running over them with american tanks Bush gave him. Bush wants a nucleur war with Russia so his clone and manchurian candidate McCain can win the election in November. Bush has slaughtered 1,250,000 iraqi men, women, and children and now with a nucleur war will murder 450 million to 1,450 million people (population control). Bush is convinced America will survive a nucleur war as he and his clone McCain hide in their underground bunker like Hitler did.

Hey nancy pelosi you still gonna protect your psychopathic lover Bush and his clone McCain. Together you and Bush and McCain have murdered 1,250,000 iraqi men, women, and children. If you murder 8 million more iraqis you will win the war.

Hobbit wrote:

<quoted text>
If that were true, it would have been timed for midway through the games. The metal count is now showing the weak showing of a number of counties. At opening, no need to divert attention.
However, the Russians I know are not letting the war distract from the games.
The USA metal count would not be that great if the one man gold winning swimmer were not on the team. The amazing numbers is the China count.

Something is wrong with your math. So far that one swimmer has won only two of the medals for the USA. China is doing well, especially with their gymnastics team of 14 year old girls.

Zaporozhets wrote:

The idea of Russia as a victim is a little hard to swallow...

The victim is S. Ossetia.

Schoole of KGB proved that Harvards sucks in comparison with it in quality of education of presidents.

Kenhunt wrote:

<quoted text> China is doing well, especially with their gymnastics team of 14 year old girls.

Has someone checked their birth certificates, I wonder...

Robespierre wrote:

<quoted text>
Has someone checked their birth certificates, I wonder...

You'd have to saw them in half and count the growth rings,and probably that would be bad kharma.

Billy the Kid wrote:

The evil Bush ordered Saakashvili to attack Russia and slaughter 10,000 people by running over them with american tanks Bush gave him. Bush wants a nucleur war with Russia so his clone and manchurian candidate McCain can win the election in November. Bush has slaughtered 1,250,000 iraqi men, women, and children and now with a nucleur war will murder 450 million to 1,450 million people (population control). Bush is convinced America will survive a nucleur war as he and his clone McCain hide in their underground bunker like Hitler did.

For one thing, Georgia has no US tanks; it uses Russian built T-72s, the kind the US forces obliterated in the Gulf wars. Second, any child knows a nuclear war between the west and Russia would be the end of the world. Third, no, the coalition did not deliberately kill any civilians; the number of civilians killed in this war is much smaller, but sad: where were you when Saddam, Uday, and Qusay were torturing, raping and murdering right under your nose? Last, America would not survive a nuclear war, since radioactive fallout would pretty much erase all human life. Whoever is paying you to post this stupid stuff ought to get his rubles back.

Peter wrote:

Schoole of KGB proved that Harvards sucks in comparison with it in quality of education of presidents.

John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Rutherford Hayes, Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Delanor Roosevelt, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, and George W. Bush graduated Harvard. Well, six out of seven ain't bad.