Luck in Chess
by FM Amatzia Avni

Chess is described as a game of logic and reason, a battlefield where things do not just happen randomly. If you lose, you must have blundered; if your rival makes good moves, you cannot expect to gain an edge. As far as chess is concerned, we are raised to believe in an orderly world, in a direct link between cause and consequence.

As a rule, this picture is close to reality. But it just so happens, occasionally, that a drop of sheer luck decides a fate of a battle. Before we proceed, let us agree exactly what we mean by ‘luck’.  The word frequently serves as a mere excuse of a bad performance: “For little kids, there are usually only two outcomes of a game – either I won or You cheated!  Chess players are much more mature than that – the endings of their games, especially at the club level, are due to either I won or You were lucky!” / Rick Kennedy.

Amatzia Avni is an Israeli psychologist.  He is a FIDE Master in both game and composition, a former editor of the Israeli magazine Schahmat and a regular contributor to Chess Monthly.  His recent book "Devious Chess" was released by Batsford in 2006.  Read Chessville reviews of two of his earlier works also:  Practical Chess Psychology: Understanding the Human Factor  (2001); and  The Grandmaster's Mind (2004).

Astonishingly, this natural recapture leads to a loss; 24.N:c1 is correct.

24…Qd6!

Suddenly, without any warning signs, through no hostile intentions from either side, White is losing this seemingly dead-equal position.

25.Q:c6

The white bishop cannot find a safe haven.  If 25.Bb5 (Rd1 Nb4) then 25…Nb4 26.Qa4 a6.  Another way to lose is 25.Bc4 B:c4 26.Q:c4 Qd1+.

25…Q:c6?

That the chances in the diagram position had occurred randomly, is attested by the fact that both sides, esteemed grandmasters each, have failed to foresee its consequences.  Black could have won by force, with 25…Q:d3!, when the weakness of White’s first rank proves decisive.  The combined threats of 26…Q:e2, 26…Qd1+ and 26…Rc8 leave White defenceless.  For instance, 26.Nc3 Rc8 27.Qb7 R:c3 28.Qb8+ Bc8!

26.R:c6 R:d3

27.f4?

Now White is losing again.  27.f3 would have kept drawing chances (27…Ra3 28.Nc3).

27…Bg4 28.Nc3 e:f4 29.Nd5 Rd1+ 30.Kf2 Rd2+ 31.Kf1 Be2+ 32.Ke1 R:a2 33.N:f4 Bb5 34.Rc8+ Kg7 35.Rc7 Ra4 36.Ne6+ Kf6 37.Nc5 Ra2 38.g4 Re2+ 39.Kd1 R:h2 40.g5+ Ke5 41.R:f7 a5

White resigns.

Lautier – Kasparov
Tilburg 1997

1.c4 c5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nc3 d5 4.cxd5 N:d5 5.e4 Nb4 6.Bb5+ N8c6 7.d4 cxd4 8.a3 dxc3 9.Qxd8+ Kxd8 10.axb4 cxb2 11.Bxb2 e6 12.0-0 Bd7 13.Bxc6 Bxc6 14.Ne5 Ke8 15.Nxc6 bxc6 16.Ra4 f6 17.Rfa1 Kf7 18.Rxa7+ Rxa7 19.Rxa7+ Be7

The whole game had a drawish character, so the players expected the logical conclusion to be a peaceful result.

20.Rc7? ½:½?

Both protagonists failed to notice that following White’s erroneous 20^th move, a random winning chance for Black had emerged: 20…c5! wins a pawn (21.bxc5? Rb8) with significant chances for a Black victory.

Notice that this chance was created only because of 20.Rc7?.  In the diagram Black has no threat, as 20…c5 is met by 21.bxc5 Rb8 22.Ra2=

What are the lessons from these episodes?  Of course, the familiar advice that we should remain vigilant, constantly reminding ourselves that many surprises lurk behind the surface, holds.  But apart from that, I frankly don’t see much we could do to avoid lucky chance-occurrences.

Basically, with all our efforts to control our surrounding, we have to acknowledge that sometimes, a random tactic falls from clear sky, and this phenomenon is an unavoidable part of the game of chess.

Inside Avni's Mind

© 2008 Amatzia Avni and Chessville

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