The Brown bust: Unemployment
Fraser Nelson 4:00pm
How bad can unemployment get during the Brown Bust? Predictions of two or three million unemployed miss an important point. The concept of the “dole” has changed: unlike in the 1980s it has become a way of life, as well as a safety net. There were 5.2 million on out-of-work benefits last February of which just 806,000 were claiming unemployed benefit.
The number of out-of-work, working-age people sustained by the workforce could break six million next year. The progress on tackling what Beveridge memorably called the “giant evil” of idleness was woeful – mainly because 81 percent of the new jobs were either created or taked by immigrants. They may go home, but the British jobless will still be with us. And it’s a worsening version of the above graph that the new government will have to confront.
PS 7Data exists from 1979 for only three categories, which the DWP kindly emailed me on request. Here it is, below.
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Comments
Tiberius
October 15th, 2008 5:02pmLet's not forget the role of GPs in the levels of incapacity benefit. I have recent experience with one of our employees.
TrevorsDen
October 15th, 2008 5:19pmYes - well before the mass influx of immigrants there were 600,000 job vacancies - now after it ... we have 600,000 vacancies.
Immigrants may leave but the inevitable inflation of jobs their very arrival created will go with them as well. So the removal of immigrants will not necessarily make life easier for the rest of us.
Chartists would look at your diagram and predict 3 million unemployed within 18 months and some 8 million in total on benefits.
BTW the BBC just reporting that Brown has arrived at the EU 'summit' early - quite forgetting to add that this allowed him to duck PMQs (as Hague hinted 'we know why the PM is not here).
And
On the PMQ front - is it not a bit pathetic to expect a lot from PMQs when the opposition only have 6 questions which are never answered and the PM can rely on a dozen planted questions to allow him to propagandise?
TrevorsDen
October 15th, 2008 5:32pmTiberius - the job should not fall on GPs - this sort of thing could threaten to ruin what is an important link betwen the GP and the patient.
It should be an independent medical body - a la that bit in 'Porridge' ...
Doctor: Suffer from any illness?
Fletcher: Bad feet.
Doctor: Suffer from any illness?
Fletch: Bad feet!!
Doctor: Paid a recent visit to a doctor or hospital?
Fletch: Only with my bad feet! ...
Doctor: Are you now or have you at any time been a practicing homosexual.
Fletch: What, with these feet?
Doctor: Now I want you to fill one of those containers for me.
Fletch: What, from 'ere?
DSR
October 15th, 2008 5:42pmOh God. Are you sure that the credit crunch isn't the fault of GPs as well, Tiberius? Everything else seems to be!
Just this evening, I have spent 25 minutes arguing robustly with somebody about the need to get back to work. I lost the argument as I usually do. Then I get disheartened - soon I will give up trying to be responsible.
Give us a break.
Rob
October 15th, 2008 6:17pmBrown's 800,000+ public sector non-jobs with their gold plated pensions probably cost the taxpayer more than higher unemployment. Imcome support and job seekers allowance are probably far cheaper than the kinds of public sector non-jobs advertised in the Guardian.
TGF UKIP
October 15th, 2008 6:33pmFraser, you make the point, many Tories on here vividly make the point but why don't your mates who are, after all supposed to be HM opposition also make the point.
Grayling on the 6 o'clock news certainly made virtually no point at all and Maples on the World at One gave every appearance of wishing to seem completely a-political.
Like it or like it not, Fraser, it really is currently a case of Labour rottweilers agin Tory toy poodles.
You'd better get writing pieces a lot more acerbic than they have been recently to give your boys the kick up the arse they so plainly require.
Laughing Larry
October 15th, 2008 7:19pmCan we now offically call our Prime Minister:
CRASH GORDON
Tiberius
October 15th, 2008 7:56pmDSR: Am I right in thinking you're a GP?
I'm sorry if I'm guilty of tarring all GPs with the same brush, but I've had sick notes ranging from "headache" to "lassitude" as reasons for prolonged absence from work. The definitive "stress" is the latest one, which has ultimately led to the employee moving on to incapacity benefit.
What I would not expect a GP to understand is the effect a single prolonged absence has on a small business and on the other employees trying to work round it. It's the open-endedness of the absence and having to keep the job open that are the worst of it.
In the case to which you refer, could you simply not sign the patient off if you think they're fit for work?
David
October 15th, 2008 8:16pmUm, according to that graph, the numbers have been falling since Labour got in.
Hysteria
October 15th, 2008 8:35pmTGF - I agree (again) - all political strategy aside, as I understand it in our constitutional arrangement it is the DUTY of the opposition to oppose the incumbent government.
God knows they have enough to be working with!
Dr Blue
October 15th, 2008 8:56pmhttp://www.drrant.net/2007/07/myth-of-full-employment-my-part-in-its.html
Tiberius
A mea culpa at the link above about the incapacity game. The doctors aren't all that proud of their role in the incapacity benefit masking unemployment trick.
Tiberius
October 15th, 2008 9:44pmThank you for that link, Dr Blue. A most amusing sick note, and a piece revealing a very serious issue.
I have responded to DSR but at the time of writing, the post has not appeared. Hopefully it will later.
Hysteria
October 16th, 2008 12:01amDavid - at first sight I agree you have a point - but Labour came in 1997 where the trend was clearly well established (bottom graph)
since then the trend has been flattening out and in the top graph there is a definite up-tick in all the measures since mid-07