Chess Opening's Statistics

These statistics show the percentages of games won by white and black and the amount of games drawn from over 2 million matches for 60 of the most common Chess openings and 230 further variations of those openings. This page should give you a good idea of what openings and variations are the most successful for white and black. There is also a written summary below the table that summarises all the best and worst variations for the openings in the table. As well as that there are lists of the top 10 best and worst openings for white and black and the most and least drawish openings.

Summary

This is a summary of what the best and worst variations and moves to play are from the table above. These were worked out by counting a win as one point and a draw as half a point like you'd get in most tournaments or league matches. See the table above for the moves played in the opening/variation mentioned.

White's 1st Move

The best first moves for white are 1. c4, 1. d4, 1. g3 and 1. Nf3. They all have very similar success rates for white. 1. e4 is not quite so successful because of the popularity of black's equally most successful opening, the Sicilian Defence. 

Replies to White's 1st Move

Against 1. a3 (Anderssen's Opening), play 1...g6, don't play 1...e5.

Against 1. b3 (Larsen's Defence), play 1...d5 (Classical Variation).

Against 1. b4 (Polish Defence), 1...Nf6 is slightly more successful than 1...d5 and 1...e5.

Against 1. c3 (Saragossa Opening), play 1...d5.

Against 1. c4 (English Opening), play 1...c5 (Symmetrical Variation).

Against 1. d3 (Mieses Opening), play 1...e5.

Against 1. d4 (Queen's Pawn Opening), 1...Nf6 is black's best reply. 1...g6 and 1...d6 are also quite good for black. 1...d5 is a very common reply but not as successful for black. 1...f5 (Dutch Defence) and 1...b5 (Polish Opening) are both bad for black.

Against 1. e3 (Van't Kruijs Attack), play 1...d5, don't play 1...e5.

Against 1. e4 (King's Pawn Opening), 1...c5 (Sicilian Defence) is black's best reply. Although not too commonly played, 1...g6 (Robatsch Defence), 1...Nf6 (Alekhine's Defence) and 1...Nc6 (Nimzowitsch Defence) are also quite good for black while other replies like 1...c6 (Caro-Kann), 1...d6 (Pirc Defence) and 1...e6 (French Defence) are also a little bit more successful than the more common 1...e5.

Against 1. f4 (Bird's Opening), play 1...d5 (Dutch Variation).

Against 1. g3 (Benko Opening), play either 1...d5 or 1...e5, don't play 1...h5 (Lasker Simul Special).

Against 1. g4 (Grob Opening), play 1...e5.

Against 1. Nc3 (Dunst Opening), play 1...d5, don't play 1...e5 or 1...Nf6.

Against 1. Nf3 (Reti Opening), play 1...g6, don't play 1...Nc6.

Against any other first move, play either 1...d5 or 1...e5.

Queen's Pawn Openings

After 1. d4 d5

If black replies to 1. d4 with 1...d5 then white's most successful openings are 2. c4 (Queen's Gambit) and 2. e4 (Blackmar Diemer Gambit). Other fairly common continuations like 2. Nf3 are not as successful.

Against 2. c4 (Queen's Gambit), the best continuations for black are the Queen's Gambit Accepted and the Semi Slav. If black plays the Semi Slav then its better for white to play 5. Bg5 rather than 5. e3 because that can easily lead into the Meran Variation which is black's most successful continuation from the Queen's Gambit.

After 1. d4 Nf6

2. c4 is more successful than 2. Nf3 for white but black can try for the Nimzo Indian after 2. c4 and that is black's equally most successful opening overall, however white can avoid that by playing a different third move. Another alternative that occasionally gets played is 2. Bg5 (Trompowsky Attack), black's most successful reply to that is 2...d5.

After 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4

There are two common continuations for black in this position which are 2...e6 (normally leading to a Nimzo Indian or Queen's Indian) or 2...g6 (normally leading to a King's Indian or Grunfeld Defence). Out of those two continuations 2...e6 is more successful for black.

Benko Gambit - White should fully accept the gambit and try to keep to the main line. Playing the Nescafe Frappe Attack instead of fully accepting the gambit is bad for white.

Benoni Defence - White should play the Modern Variation against this opening.

Grunfeld Defence - All of the main lines are good for white but the Russian System is a little bit more successful.

King's Indian - This is an extremely popular opening for black but its nowhere near as successful for black as the Nimzo Indian. White's most successful continuation is the Averbakh Variation, also note that if black makes the mistake in that variation of playing 6...e5 then 7. dxe5 dxe5 8. Qxd8 Rxd8 9. Nd5 is very good for white.

Nimzo Indian - This is black's equally most successful opening along with the Sicilian Defence. The best continuations for white are 4. Qb3 (Spielmann's Variation), 4. e3 (Main Line) and the 4. f3 variation. If the 4.e3 c5 Main Line is played, white should play 5. Ne2 (Rubenstein's Variation) as this is white's most successful reply overall to the Nimzo Indian. White should avoid playing 4. a3 (Samisch Variation) and 4. Bg5 (Leningrad Variation).

Queen's Indian - This is less successful than the Nimzo Indian but more successful than the King's Indian. All the main variations have very similar success rates for white but the 4. a3 (Petrosian System) and 4. Nf3 Variation are slightly better. The Queen's Indian can be reached if white plays 3. Nf3 to avoid the Nimzo Indian. Also note that 3...Bb4+ would lead to a Bogo-Indian Defence which is bad for black as white can play 4. Nbd2 to avoid the risk of getting doubled pawns on the c-file and an isolated pawn on the a-file.

King's Pawn Openings

After 1. e4 e5

Against 2. d4 (Centre Game), play 2...exd4. After that, the Danish Gambit is a bit more successful for white. In that continuation, black shouldn't fully accept the gambit by taking the pawn on b2.

Against 2. f4 (King's Gambit), play either 2...d5 (Falkbeer Counter Gambit) or 2...exf4 (Accepted), definitely don't play 2...d6 (Declined). Black's best continuation is the Abbazia Defence, closely followed by the Cunningham Defence. The Allgaier Gambit isn't so good for black.

Against 2. Bc4 (Bishop's Opening), 2...Nf6 (Berlin Defence) is a bit more successful than 2...Nc6 (Classical Variation). After 2...Nf6 is played, 3. d3 is better for white than 3. Nc3.

Against 2. Nc3 (Vienna Game), black's most successful reply is 2...Nf6 (Falkbeer Variation). If white plays 3. f4 (Vienna Gambit) after that then 3...d5 (Modern Variation) is good for black. Black shouldn't play 3...exf4 to accept the gambit as that has a very low success rate for black.

Against 2. Nf3 f5 (Latvian Gambit), play 3. Nxe5.

Against 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. c3 (Ponziani's Opening), 3...d5 is better than 3...Nf6 for black.

Against 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. d4 (Scotch Game), black should play 3...exd4. Overall the best continuation for white is 4. c3 (Goring Gambit) but that is risky because the 4...d5 (Declined) reply is good for black. If black accepts the Goring Gambit then they shouldn't fully accept it by taking the pawn on b2 as well as this is very good for white. The main line of 4. Nxd4 is nearly as successful for white overall and doesn't have the problem of one of the main replies being more successful for black. Black's two main continuations after 4. Nxd4 are 4...Bc5 and 4...Nf6 (Schmidt Variation) and they both have similar success rates for black.

Against 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 (Ruy Lopez), the best replies are 3...a6 (Morphy Defence), 3...f5 (Schliemann Gambit) and 3...Nf6 (Berlin Gambit). The least successful replies are 3...d6 (Steinitz Defence), 3...Nd4 (Bird's Defence) and 3...Bc5 (Classical Defence). If black plays 3...a6 (Morphy Defence), 4. Ba5 is better than 4. Bxc6 (Exchange Variation). If a closed variation is played, the Centre Attack and Worrall Attack are almost as good as the main line. If the main line of a Closed Variation is played up until black's 9th move then black's most successful continuation at that point is 9...Nb8 (Breyer's Variation). Overall, black's best variation is the Marshall Counter-Gambit however trying to play for that is a bit risky as 8. a4 is very successful for white. Also good for black is the Rio de Janiero Variation.

Against 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4 (Giuoco Piano), 3...Nf6 (Two Knight's Defence) is slightly more successful than 3...Bc5 (Main Line). In the 3...Bc5 Main Line, white should play 4. c3 to prepare d4 but if black plays 4...Nf6 then 5. d3 is a more successful continuation for white than 5. d4. In the main line, white should avoid playing the Moller Attack as that is good for black. The Evans Gambit, Giuoco Pianissimo and 3...Bc5 4. Nc3 line are not too good for white either.

Against 2. Nf3 Nf6 (Petroff's Defence), 3. d4 (Steinitz Variation) is white's best reply. If white plays 3. Nxe5, then black should play 3...d6 (Paulsen Variation). The 3. Nxe5 Qe7 Variation and 3. Nxe5 Nxe4 (Damiano Variation) are bad for black. 

Other 1. e4 Replies

Against 1...b6 (Queenside Fianchetto), play 2. d4.

Against 1...c5 (Sicilian Defence), the two most successful replies are 2. Nf3 and then 2. c3 (Alapin Variation). Other continuations like 2. Nc3 (Closed Variation), 2. f4 (Grand Prix Attack) and 2. b4 (Wing Gambit) aren't so good. After 2. Nf3 is played, the most successful reply to that is 2...e6. The other common replies of 2...d6 and 2...Nc6 aren't quite so successful but still good. 2...Nf6 (Nimzowitsch Variation) isn't so good. In the main line of the 2...d6 Variation, 5...a6 (Najdorf Variation) is much more successful for black than 5...e6 (Schveningen Variation) and 5...g6 (Dragon Variation). In the 2...e6 Variation, black should try for the Kan Variation as that has black's best success rate out of all the most common 2. Nf3 lines. In the 2...Nc6 Variation, white should try for the Maroczy Bind as that has white's best success rate out of all the most common 2. Nf3 lines.

Against 1...c6 (Caro-Kann), all the most common variations give a similar success rate for white but the Advance Variation is a slightly more successful.

Against 1...d5 (Center-Counter), 2...Nf6 is slightly better than 2. Qxd8 if white takes the pawn on move two. In the 2...Qxd5 3. Nc3 Variation, 3...Qa5 is a little better than 3...Qd8.

Against 1...d6 (Pirc Defence), if you are white then play the Austrian Attack if black carries on with a normal continuation like 2...Nf6 and 3...g6. That variation is easily white's most successful.

Against 1...e6 (French Defence), carry on as normal with 2. d4 d5, then for white the Tarrasch Variation is the most successful followed by the Main Line. White should avoid the Exchange Variation and the Advance Variation as they are statistically the worst of the main variations for white. In the main line of 3. Nc3, the reply 3...Nf6 is slightly more successful than 3...Bb4 (Winawer Variation) for black.

Against 1...g6 (Robatsch Defence), 2. Nf3 is a little bit more successful for white than 2. d4.

Against 1...Nc6 (Nimzowitsch Defence), 2. Nf3 is more successful than 2. d4.

Against 1...Nf6 (Alekhine Defence), play the Modern Variation, don't play the Four Pawns Attack.

Top 10's

A win counts as one point and a draw counts as half a point in the following tables. The openings here are all fairly common so these tables don't include openings that never get played in higher level Chess because the win percentages won't be very accurate.

White's Best 10 Openings (Based on White Win % + (Draw % * 0.5))

White's Worst 10 Openings (Based on White Win % + (Draw % * 0.5))

Black's Best 10 Openings (Based on Black Win % + (Draw % * 0.5))

Black's Worst 10 Openings (Based on Black Win % + (Draw % * 0.5))

10 Most Drawish Openings

10 Least Drawish Openings

If there are statistics for other openings or variations that I have missed that you are interested in then position searches can be done at www.chesslab.com/PositionSearch.html . To do the search, set the position up on the board and click on the "Position Stats" button.

Links

Chess Puzzles
This is a collection of checkmate puzzles. There are sets of 12 puzzles for beginners, intermediate and advanced players.

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Chess Opening's
From this page you will find links to my various Opening's Websites. There are websites about the following openings:- Blackburne Gambit, Budapest Gambit, Hippopotamus Defence, Incorrect Opening, Ruy Lopez, Slav Defence, St George's Defence and a collection of unusual openings. In total there are over 700 example games involving these openings.

Chess Opening's Statistics
These are statistics compiled from over 2 million games. It shows for each opening and variation what percentage of matches were won by white, black and were drawn. Also included are white's and black's best and worst 10 openings statistically and what are the most and least drawish openings. There are statistics for nearly 300 different openings and variations.